Predicting elimination of evolving virus variantsArticle Published on 2022-12-022023-07-10 Journal: Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of t [Category] COVID19(2023년), [키워드] branching process selection pressure virus evolutionary tree. [DOI] 10.1093/imammb/dqac012
Estimation of local transmissibility in the early phase of monkeypox epidemic in 2022Article Published on 2022-12-012023-06-10 Journal: Clinical microbiology and infection : the official [Category] Fulltext, 원숭이두창, [키워드] basic reproductive number branching process Epidemic Monkeypox outbreak [DOI] 10.1016/j.cmi.2022.06.025 PMC 바로가기
Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case studyArticle Published on 2022-02-212022-10-29 Journal: Journal of theoretical biology [Category] COVID-19, COVID19(2023년), MERS, SARS, [키워드] age Age-structured models Branching branching process can be used Combination Contact COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic develop distribution Effect Effectiveness effort eliminated Epidemics Factor Factors group heterogeneity Host include index case individual infected individuals infectious disease epidemiology initiate Intervention introduced Local local outbreak local outbreaks Mathematical modelling mitigate Non-pharmaceutical interventions NPI NPIs outbreak Outbreak probability Pathogens pathophysiology predicted Prevent reduce reduced required risk SARS-CoV-2 School social distancing Surveillance symptomatic case Transmission [DOI] 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110983 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Article
Analysis of Superspreading Potential from Transmission Clusters of COVID-19 in South KoreaArticle Published on 2021-12-072022-10-29 Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research an [Category] COVID-19, SARS, [키워드] absence branching process caused Characteristics Cluster cluster-induced transmissions cluster-specific reproduction number Clusters confirmed case convalescent country COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic death disease effective Evidence group groups heterogeneity hospitals indicate Infection likelihood Occurrence Outbreaks parameter Potential Reproduction number SARS-CoV-2 Schools South Korea statistical model superspreading event superspreading events the mean Transmission transmissions [DOI] 10.3390/ijerph182412893 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Article
Epidemic size, trend and spatiotemporal mapping of SARS-CoV-2 using geographical information system in Alborz Province, IranResearch Article Published on 2021-11-252022-10-28 Journal: BMC Infectious Diseases [Category] COVID-19, MERS, SARS, [키워드] affected Alborz average basic reproductive number branching process Case fatility rate CFR confirmed case COVID-19 COVID-19 infection cumulative deaths defined distribution doubling Epidemic epidemic wave Esri Geographic information system geographical area incidence information involved Iran likelihood maximum-likelihood Poisson positive result preventive measure Qom reached reduced reduction reported respiratory specimens Result SARS-CoV-2 spatiotemporal Spread the disease the epidemic viral nucleic acid [DOI] 10.1186/s12879-021-06870-6 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Research Article
Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 controlMathematics Published on 2021-11-172022-10-28 Journal: Royal Society Open Science [Category] COVID-19, [키워드] border restrictions branching process calculate Combination community transmission coronavirus COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 transmission deaths Effectiveness eliminating Frame greater Implementing infectious disease outbreak Intervention Level measure Measures New Non-pharmaceutical interventions outbreak outcomes Probability reduce reducing reported Stochastic model the epidemic the timing trajectory [DOI] 10.1098/rsos.210488 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Mathematics
Contact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherenceArticle Published on 2021-09-132022-10-29 Journal: Nature Communications [Category] COVID-19, SARS, [키워드] benefit branching process Computational models Contact tracing Coverage COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 transmission diagnostic Epidemiology estimates Evidence Outbreaks parameter predictor reduce reducing reduction in SARS-CoV-2 sensitivity shown Transmission viral infection [DOI] 10.1038/s41467-021-25531-5 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Article
A structured model for COVID-19 spread: modelling age and healthcare inequitiesCOVID-19 확산에 대한 구조화된 모델: 연령 및 의료 불평등 모델링Article Published on 2021-08-152022-09-11 Journal: Mathematical medicine and biology : a journal of t [Category] SARS, 치료기술, 치료제, [키워드] accompanied age branching process children Community concerning Contact Contact tracing coronavirus COVID-19 demographic group epidemiological epidemiological modelling. Evidence greater group groups health inequities healthcare heterogeneous higher risk highlight increase in indicate infection rate infection rates information lack New Older outbreak risk School significantly social distancing spread of COVID-19 transmission rate transmission rates unlikely [DOI] 10.1093/imammb/dqab006 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Article
Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracingArticles Published on 2021-07-192022-10-29 Journal: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: [Category] COVID-19, SARS, [키워드] adherence asked average branching process Case isolation Contact Contact tracing country COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic decrease effective Engagement increasingly individual introduced lockdown policy outbreak Policy Probability quarantine reduced risk SARS-CoV-2 self-isolate Self-isolation Symptom trade-off [DOI] 10.1098/rstb.2020.0270 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Articles
Using a household-structured branching process to analyse contact tracing in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemicArticles Published on 2021-07-192022-10-29 Journal: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: [Category] COVID-19, SARS, [키워드] branching process Case isolation Combination Contact Contact tracing COVID-19 COVID-19 pandemic declining Effect Epidemic Epidemiology extinction time growth implementation Infectious disease Intervention Measures moderate outcome pandemic physical distancing physical distancing measure quarantine recall reflect risk SARS-CoV-2 Self-isolation sustained Symptom the epidemic the SARS-CoV-2 Transmission [DOI] 10.1098/rstb.2020.0267 PMC 바로가기 [Article Type] Articles