Abstract
Emergency vaccine use requires weighing a large number of uncertain risks and possible benefits. In the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions about what evidence is necessary to authorize emergency use have proven controversial, and vary between countries. We construct a simple mathematical model of the risks and benefits of emergency vaccination to an individual, and apply this to the hypothetical scenario of individual decision-making between emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine without safety and efficacy data, versus waiting for efficacy and safety to be established. Even with conservative modelling assumptions and uncertainty distributions for vaccine efficacy (mean expectation = 17%) and serious adverse event risk (mean expectation = 0.3%), high risk individuals (e.g. those who are elderly and have a household contact with COVID-19) are better off using the ’emergency vaccine’ rather than waiting for more information (absolute risk reduction for mortality up to 2%). Very early emergency authorization of vaccines despite very limited data may be the better public health strategy when confronted with a dangerous emerging infectious disease.
【초록키워드】 public health, Efficacy, Vaccine, COVID-19 vaccine, vaccination, Mortality, COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine efficacy, risk, Infectious disease, mathematical model, Emerging infectious disease, Efficacy and safety, distribution, information, Emergency use, Evidence, Emergency, Contact, high risk, contact with, Serious Adverse Event, individual, assumption, risk reduction, benefit, mathematical, hypothetical, with COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 Vaccine, Analysis,