Abstract
Background: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading public health problem in China. COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the delivery of health care interventions worldwide, including HBV infection control.
Methods: In this study, we used a Markov model to quantify the costs and population health impact of HBV treatment in China for the following scenarios: 1) current practice with only 17% of treatment eligible HBV infected adults receiving antiviral treatment; 2) reaching the World Health Organization (WHO) treatment target of 80% by 2030 with a steady increase in treatment rate beginning in 2022; and 3) the effect of a 1-5-year delay in meeting the 2030 WHO treatment target. A one-way as well as a probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted.
Results: Without increasing antiviral treatment for treatment eligible HBV infected adults, the life-time health care costs for the estimated 89.2 million adults living with HBV in China is US$1305 billion and 10.8 million (12%) will die from HBV-related liver disease. Increasing treatment to achieve the WHO 80% target by 2030 would save US$472 billion and prevent 3.3 million HBV-related deaths. We estimated that a 1-year delay beyond 2030 in reaching the WHO 80% treatment target would likely lead to US$55 billion increase in future health care costs, and an additional 334 000 future deaths from HBV-related liver disease or cancer.
Conclusions: Reaching the WHO 2030 with minimal delays would have an immense health and economic benefit. Implementing a national treatment program for HBV in China should be a key priority for policymakers.
【초록키워드】 Treatment, public health, Health care, Antiviral, COVID-19 pandemic, Cancer, Infection, Intervention, Antiviral treatment, virus, HBV, China, Adults, Health, death, sensitivity analysis, WHO, Care, Liver disease, deaths, health problem, Health Organization, national treatment, World Health Organization, National, HBV infection, Markov, Prevent, benefit, conducted, receiving, increase in, the WHO, Increasing, eligible, Implementing, 【제목키워드】 Treatment, China, Health, implementation, hepatitis B, National,