Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant that was first detected in the UK in September 2020 1 , has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than pre-existing variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity 2 . Here we analyse a dataset that links 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 deaths associated with COVID-19 in England from 1 November 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because mutations in this lineage prevent PCR amplification of the spike (S) gene target (known as S gene target failure (SGTF) 1 ). On the basis of 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% confidence interval, 39-72%) higher than in cases without SGTF after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, residence in a care home, the local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55-69-year-old man increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.0%) within 28 days of a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7 is 61% (42-82%) higher than with pre-existing variants. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.
【초록키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Mutation, disease severity, variant, Sex, Local, variants, Ethnicity, SARS-CoV-2 variants, B.1.1.7, Lineage, death, Community, age, dataset, Lineage B.1.1.7, Misclassification, England, Care, PCR amplification, S gene, Analysis, absolute risk, Deprivation, presence or absence, risk of death, 95% confidence interval, hazard, Positive test, residence, positive, S gene target failure, SARS-CoV-2 lineage, country, Prevent, gene target, missingness, spread to, absence, Correcting, with COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 Mortality, Increased,