A novel algorithm to define infection tendencies in H1N1 cases in Mainland China

Research highlights ▶ The D–R mathematical model predicts future trends in the spread of human H1N1. ▶ The D–R algorithm may have broader application to other human viral diseases. ▶ D–R modeling will help design surveillance programs for the spread of viral diseases. ▶ The predictive value of the D–R model is superior to the grey prediction model. Incidences of H1N1 viral infections in Mainland China are collected by the Ministry of Health, the People’s Republic of China. The number of confirmed cases and the timing of these outbreaks from May 13 to July 22, 2009 were obtained and subjected to a novel mathematical model to simulate the infection profile (time vs number). The model was predicated upon the grey prediction theory which allows assignment of future trends using limited numbers of data points. During the period of our analysis, the number of confirmed H1N1 cases in Mainland China increased from 1 to 1772. The efficiency of our model to simulate these data points was evaluated using Sum of squares of error (SSE), Relative standard error (RSE), Mean absolute deviation (MAD) and Average relative error (ARE). Results from these analyses were compared to similar calculations based upon the grey prediction algorithm. Using our equation, defined herein as equation D–R, results showed that SSE = 6742.00, RSE = 10.69, MAD = 7.07, ARE = 2.47% were all consistent with the D–R algorithm performing well in the estimation of future trends of H1N1 cases in Mainland China. Calculations using the grey theory had no predictive value [ARE for GM(1,1) = −104.63%]. To validate this algorithm, we performed a second analysis using new data obtained from cases reported to the WHO and CDC in the US between April 26 and June 8, 2009. In like manner, the model was equally predictive. The success of the D–R mathematical model suggests that it may have broader application to other viral infections among the human population in China and may be modified for application to other regions of the world.