Development and validation of a non-invasive model for diagnosing HBV-related liver cirrhosis

Background: Liver cirrhosis is closely related to the abnormal liver function and occurrence of liver cancer. Accurate non-invasive assessment of liver cirrhosis is of great significance for preventing disease progression and treatment decision-making. We aim to develop and validate a non-invasive diagnostic model for liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).
Methods: From July 2015 to April 2017, seven-hundred fifty-four patients with primary HBV-related liver cancer who underwent hepatectomy were reprospectively recruited. All patients were examined with 2D-SWE and serologic testing preoperatively, which were utilized for measurement of liver stiffness and serum fibrosis models. The stage of liver fibrosis was evaluated using a resected liver specimen. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression was used for feature selection and binary logistic regression analysis was chosen to build a diagnostic model, which was presented as a nomogram and evaluated for calibration, discrimination and clinical usefulness. The performance of noninvasive model was then prospectively validated in an independent cohort (361 patients) by the ROC curve analysis.
Results: The diagnostic model, which consists of 5 selected clinical characteristics (PIII-NP, IV-C, Hyaluronan, Platelet and Liver stiffness), showed the strongest correlation with liver fibrosis stage (ρ = 0.702, P < 0.05). Compared with APRI, FIB-4, King’s Score, and Forns Index, the model presented the optimal discrimination and the best predictive performance with the highest AUC in the training cohort (0.866, 95%CI 0.840-0.892, P < 0.05) and validation cohorts (0.852, 95%CI 0.813-0.890, P < 0.05). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that nomogram based on the model was extremely useful for diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B.
Conclusion: This study proposes a non-invasive diagnostic model that incorporates the clinical predictors which can be conveniently used in the individualized diagnosis of HBV-related liver cirrhosis.