Abstract
The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020-June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0-64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9-75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July-mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.
Keywords: COVID-19; Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant; India; boosting; prior infection; vaccine effectiveness.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, India, vaccine effectiveness, Prior infection, Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant, boosting, 【초록키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Vaccine, vaccination, Immunity, COVID-19 pandemic, India, variant, SARS-CoV-2 variant, Infection, Delta, delta variant, vaccine dose, Region, Coverage, Model, Effectiveness, dataset, infectious, boost, dose, Support, 95% CI, infection rates, first dose, individual, wild-type SARS-CoV-2, wild-type, discrepancy, indicate, increase, baseline, escaped, 【제목키워드】 vaccination, COVID-19 pandemic, implication, the SARS-CoV-2,