Abstract
Emergency and establishment of variants of concern (VOC) impose significant challenges for the COVID-19 pandemic control specially when a large portion of the population has not been fully vaccinated. Here we develop a mathematical model and utilize this model to examine the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions, including the COVID-test (PCR, antigen and antibody test) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) test capacity and contact tracing and quarantine strength, on the VOC-induced epidemic wave. We point out the undesirable and unexpected effect of lukewarm tracing and quarantine that can potentially increase the VOC-cases at the outbreak peak time, and we demonstrate the significance of strain-specific interventions to either prevent a VOC-induced outbreak, or to mitigate the epidemic wave when this outbreak is unavoidable.
Keywords: COVID-19; Limited resources; Strain-specific interventions; Tracing delay; Variant of concerns; Whole genome sequencing.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, Whole genome sequencing, Limited resources, Strain-specific interventions, Tracing delay, Variant of concerns, 【초록키워드】 VoC, quarantine, COVID-19 pandemic, Sequencing, variants of concern, Contact tracing, Intervention, variants, Antigen, Whole genome sequencing, PCR, mathematical model, outbreak, Antibody test, WGS, tracing, Emergency, strain, epidemic wave, whole genome, Pharmaceutical interventions, mitigate, Prevent, the epidemic, develop, mathematical, Limited, lukewarm, 【제목키워드】 Intervention, outbreak, Prevent,