Abstract
A year and a half has passed since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Mathematical models to predict infection are expected and many studies have been conducted. In this study, a new interpretation was created that could reproduce the daily positive cases in Tokyo using only a simple SIR model. In addition, the data on the ratio of transfer to delta variants could also be simulated. It is anticipated that this interpretation will be a basis for the development of forecasting methods.
Keywords: COVID-19; SIR model; basic community; complete mixing.
All Keywords
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SIR model, basic community, complete mixing., 【초록키워드】 COVID-19 pandemic, Infection, delta variant, mathematical model, outbreak, Interpretation, predict, Delta variants, Tokyo, Mathematical models, transfer, positive, Complete, addition, conducted, expected, anticipated, 【제목키워드】 Interpretation, Combination,
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SIR model, basic community, complete mixing., 【초록키워드】 COVID-19 pandemic, Infection, delta variant, mathematical model, outbreak, Interpretation, predict, Delta variants, Tokyo, Mathematical models, transfer, positive, Complete, addition, conducted, expected, anticipated, 【제목키워드】 Interpretation, Combination,
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코로나19 팬데믹(세계적 대유행)이 발생한 지 1년 반이 지났다. 감염을 예측하는 수학적 모델이 기대되고 많은 연구가 수행되었습니다. 이 연구에서는 간단한 SIR 모델만 사용하여 도쿄의 일일 양성 사례를 재현할 수 있는 새로운 해석을 만들었습니다. 또한 델타 변형에 대한 전송 비율에 대한 데이터도 시뮬레이션할 수 있습니다. 이러한 해석이 예측기법 개발의 기초가 될 것으로 기대된다.
{{ 키워드: }} 코로나19; SIR 모델; 기본 커뮤니티; 완전한 혼합.