Abstract
Objective: To evaluate epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak that resurged in Yangzhou and to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales.
Methods: We collected personal information from 570 laboratory-confirmed cases in Yangzhou from 28 July to 26 August 2021, and built a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model and an agent-based model.
Results: The SEIR model showed that for passengers from medium-high risk areas, pre-travel nucleic acid testing within 3 days could limit the total number of infected people in Yangzhou to 50; among elderly persons, a 60% increase in vaccination rates could reduce the estimated infections by 253. The agent-based model showed that when the population density of the chess and card room dropped by 40%, the number of infected people would decrease by 54 within 7 days. A ventilation increase in the chess and card room from 25 to 50% could reduce the total number of infections by 33 within 7 days; increasing the ventilation from 25 to 75% could reduce the total number of infections by 63 within 7 days.
Conclusions: The SEIR model and agent-based model were used to simulate the impact of different control measures at different regional scales successfully. It is possible to provide references for epidemic prevention and control work.
Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant; SEIR model; agent-based model; scenario simulation.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SEIR model, SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, agent-based model, scenario simulation., 【초록키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Infection, Ventilation, Delta, risk, delta variant, nucleic acid, Epidemic, Characteristics, COVID-19 outbreak, epidemiological, information, population density, Prevention and control, agent, measure, laboratory-confirmed, vaccination rates, SEIR, vaccination rate, limit, decrease, collected, evaluate, were used, increase in, reduce, number of infected, dropped, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed, 【제목키워드】 China, Simulation, Card, Chess,