Air pollution can increase the risk of respiratory diseases, enhancing the susceptibility to viral and bacterial infections. Some studies suggest that small air particles facilitate the spread of viruses and also of the new coronavirus, besides the direct person-to-person contagion. However, the effects of the exposure to particulate matter and other contaminants on SARS-CoV-2 has been poorly explored. Here we examined the possible reasons why the new coronavirus differently impacted on Italian regional and provincial populations. With the help of artificial intelligence, we studied the importance of air pollution for mortality and positivity rates of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Italy. We discovered that among several environmental, health, and socio-economic factors, air pollution and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), as its main component, resulted as the most important predictors of SARS-CoV-2 effects. We also found that the emissions from industries, farms, and road traffic – in order of importance – might be responsible for more than 70% of the deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 nationwide. Given the major contribution played by air pollution (much more important than other health and socio-economic factors, as we discovered), we projected that, with an increase of 5–10% in air pollution, similar future pathogens may inflate the epidemic toll of Italy by 21–32% additional cases, whose 19–28% more positives and 4–14% more deaths. Our findings, demonstrating that fine-particulate (PM2.5) pollutant level is the most important factor to predict SARS-CoV-2 effects that would worsen even with a slight decrease of air quality, highlight that the imperative of productivity before health and environmental protection is, indeed, a short-term/small-minded resolution. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Air quality is linked to respiratory diseases and may facilitate microbial infections. • The prolonged exposure to air pollution can affect SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. • We found that air quality is the best predictor for SARS-CoV-2 mortality in Italy. • A prominent role is played by PM2.5 and emissions from industries and farms. • A worsening of air quality may inflate the death toll of similar future pandemics. Short summary : Artificial intelligence reveals that, in Italy, air pollution mainly due to fine particulate matter produced by industries, farms, and road traffic may severely affect the susceptibility to respiratory infections caused by SARS-CoV-like pathogens.
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Mortality, Italy, Pollution, PM2.5, industry, farms,