Abstract
The efficacy of digital contact tracing against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is debated: Smartphone penetration is limited in many countries, with low coverage among the elderly, the most vulnerable to COVID-19. We developed an agent-based model to precise the impact of digital contact tracing and household isolation on COVID-19 transmission. The model, calibrated on French population, integrates demographic, contact and epidemiological information to describe exposure and transmission of COVID-19. We explored realistic levels of case detection, app adoption, population immunity, and transmissibility. Assuming a reproductive ratio R = 2.6 and 50% detection of clinical cases, a ~20% app adoption reduces peak incidence by ~35%. With R = 1.7, >30% app adoption lowers the epidemic to manageable levels. Higher coverage among adults, playing a central role in COVID-19 transmission, yields an indirect benefit for the elderly. These results may inform the inclusion of digital contact tracing within a COVID-19 response plan.
【초록키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus disease, Coronavirus disease 2019, Efficacy, Contact tracing, Transmission, Adults, Epidemic, Coverage, Transmissibility, Smartphone, Isolation, epidemiological, incidence, population immunity, information, Contact, COVID-19 transmission, agent, penetration, French, Lower, Inclusion, benefit, the epidemic, reduce, reproductive, calibrated, 【제목키워드】 Transmission, age, Contact, role,