Impact of COVID-19 outbreak measures of lockdown on the Italian Carbon Footprint

Stringent lockdown measures implemented in Italy to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are generating unprecedented economic impacts. However, the environmental consequences associated with the temporary shutdown and recovery of industrial and commercial activities are still not fully understood. Using the well-known carbon footprint (CF) indicator, this paper provides a comprehensive estimation of environmental effects due to the COVID-19 outbreak lockdown measures in Italy. Our aim was to quantify the CF associated with the consumption of energy by any economic activity and region in Italy during the lockdown, and then compare these environmental burdens with the CF calculated for analogous periods from 2015 to 2019 (~March and April). Complementarily, we also conducted a scenario analysis to estimate the post-lockdown CF impact in Italy. A consumption-based approach was applied according to the principles of the established Life Cycle Assessment method. The CF was therefore quantified as a sum of direct and indirect greenhouse gases (GHGs) released from domestically produced and imported energy metabolism flows, excluding the exports. Our findings indicate that the CF in the lockdown period is ~-20% lower than the mean CF calculated for the past. This means avoided GHGs in between ~5.6 and ~10.6 Mt CO_{2}e. Results further suggest that a tendency occurs towards higher impact savings in the Northern regions, on average ~230 kt CO_{2}e of GHGs avoided by province (against ~110-130 kt CO_{2}e in central and Southern provinces). Not surprisingly, these are the utmost industrialized areas of Italy and have been the ones mostly affected by the outbreak. Despite our CF estimates are not free of uncertainties, our research offers quantitative insights to start understanding the magnitude generated by such an exceptional lockdown event in Italy on climate change, and to complement current scientific efforts investigating the relationships between air pollution and the spread of COVID-19.