Abstract
Background: High incidence of asymptomatic venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been observed in severe COVID-19 patients, but the characteristics of symptomatic VTE in general COVID-19 patients have not been described.
Objectives: To comprehensively explore the prevalence and reliable risk prediction for VTE in COVID-19 patients.
Methods/results: This retrospective study enrolled all COVID-19 patients with a subsequent VTE in 16 centers in China from January 1 to March 31, 2020. A total of 2779 patients were confirmed with COVID-19. In comparison to 23,434 non-COVID-19 medical inpatients, the odds ratios (ORs) for developing symptomatic VTE in severe and non-severe hospitalized COVID-19 patients were 5.94 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.91-10.09) and 2.79 (95% CI 1.43-5.60), respectively. When 104 VTE cases and 208 non-VTE cases were compared, pulmonary embolism cases had a higher rate for in-hospital death (OR 6.74, 95% CI 2.18-20.81). VTE developed at a median of 21 days (interquartile range 13.25-31) since onset. Independent factors for VTE were advancing age, cancer, longer interval from symptom onset to admission, lower fibrinogen and higher D-dimer on admission, and D-dimer increment (DI) ≥1.5-fold; of these, DI ≥1.5-fold had the most significant association (OR 14.18, 95% CI 6.25-32.18, p = 2.23 × 10 -10 ). A novel model consisting of three simple coagulation variables (fibrinogen and D-dimer levels on admission, and DI ≥1.5-fold) showed good prediction for symptomatic VTE (area under the curve 0.865, 95% CI 0.822-0.907, sensitivity 0.930, specificity 0.710).
Conclusions: There is an excess risk of VTE in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. This novel model can aid early identification of patients who are at high risk for VTE.
Keywords: COVID-19; D-dimer increment; SARS-CoV-2; thrombosis; venous thromboembolism.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, thrombosis, Venous Thromboembolism, D-dimer increment, 【초록키워드】 thrombosis, Cancer, risk, D-dimer, Venous Thromboembolism, Coagulation, Prevalence, China, Retrospective study, sensitivity, specificity, Characteristics, Asymptomatic, symptomatic, Pulmonary embolism, Patient, fibrinogen, age, incidence, Admission, COVID-19 patients, association, hospitalized COVID-19 patient, D-dimer level, Odds ratio, COVID-19 patient, VTE, high risk, on admission, In-hospital death, Inpatients, symptom onset, interquartile range, Non-COVID-19, Factor, hospitalized COVID-19 patients, D-dimer levels, 95% CI, 95% confidence interval, Odds ratios, severe COVID-19 patients, dimer, fold, variable, enrolled, described, subsequent, median, with COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 risk factor, Retrospective study, Characteristics, symptomatic, clinical, multicenter, hospitalized COVID-19,