Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-19; HCoV-19; COVID-19) has affected all daily activities. Has it also affected the number of United States (FDA) drug approvals over time? The short answer from empirical time series forecasting is not yet. Care should be taken as the crisis continues through maintaining the scientific, economic, political, and social supportive structures to sustain momentum. This conclusion is based on analyzing the results of (non-overlapping) forecasting routines (viz., complex exponential smoothing, auto-regressive fractionally integrated moving average, extreme learning machine, and multi-layer perceptron) performed on longitudinal (1939-present) FDA (CDER) drug approvals taking into regard pre- and extant-COVID-19 eras. This is an initial study and there are caveats with the approach, and as such, all data and programs are provided to support replication of the results and furthering of the investigation.
Keywords: COVID-19; Drug development; FDA; Forecasting; Policy.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, Drug development, FDA, Forecasting, Policy, 【초록키워드】 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, Structure, coronavirus, drug, severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus, Replication, Forecasting, Policy, HCoV, United States, respiratory, crisis, moving average, Support, acute respiratory syndrome, acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, complex, average, activities, approval, momentum, auto, ERAS, HCoV-19, approach, initial, extreme, performed, affected, United State, provided, 【제목키워드】 drug, food, time, United State, Sery,