Predicting the Impact of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines on Antimicrobial Resistance

Abstract Background Empiric prescribing of antimicrobials in typhoid-endemic settings has increased selective pressure on the development of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi. The introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in these settings may relieve this selective pressure, thereby reducing resistant infections and improving health outcomes. Methods A deterministic transmission dynamic model was developed to simulate the impact of TCVs on the number and proportion of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid infections and chronic carriers. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed to ascertain particularly impactful model parameters influencing the proportion of antimicrobial-resistant infections and the proportion of cases averted over 10 years. Results The model simulations suggested that increasing vaccination coverage would decrease the total number of antimicrobial-resistant typhoid infections but not affect the proportion of cases that were antimicrobial resistant. In the base-case scenario with 80% vaccination coverage, 35% of all typhoid infections were antimicrobial resistant, and 44% of the total cases were averted over 10 years by vaccination. Vaccination also decreased both the total number and proportion of chronic carriers of antimicrobial-resistant infections. The prevalence of chronic carriers, recovery rates from infection, and relative fitness of resistant strains were identified as crucially important parameters. Conclusions Model predictions for the proportion of antimicrobial resistant infections and number of cases averted depended strongly on the relative fitness of the resistant strain(s), prevalence of chronic carriers, and rates of recovery without treatment. Further elucidation of these parameter values in real-world typhoid-endemic settings will improve model predictions and assist in targeting future vaccination campaigns and treatment strategies.