Objectives We aimed to identify high-risk factors for disease progression and fatality for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Methods We enrolled 2433 COVID-19 patients and used LASSO regression and multivariable cause-specific Cox proportional hazard models to identify the risk factors for disease progression and fatality. Results The median time for progression from mild-to-moderate, moderate-to-severe, severe-to-critical, and critical-to-death were 3.0 (interquartile range: 1.8–5.5), 3.0 (1.0–7.0), 3.0 (1.0–8.0), and 6.5 (4.0–16.3) days, respectively. Among 1,758 mild or moderate patients at admission, 474 (27.0%) progressed to a severe or critical stage. Age above 60 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, respiratory rate, fever, chest tightness, c-reaction protein, lactate dehydrogenase, direct bilirubin, and low albumin and lymphocyte count were significant risk factors for progression. Of 675 severe or critical patients at admission, 41 (6.1%) died. Age above 74 years, elevated levels of blood glucose, fibrinogen and creatine kinase-MB, and low plateleta count were significant risk factors for fatality. Patients with elevated blood glucose level were 58% more likely to progress and 3.22 times more likely to die of COVID-19. Conclusions Older age, elevated glucose level, and clinical indicators related to systemic inflammatory responses and multiple organ failures, predict both the disease progression and the fatality of COVID-19 patients.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, Risk factors, progression, fatality, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, risk factor, lactate dehydrogenase, Disease progression, Lymphocyte count, Protein, Chest, Fever, Patient, albumin, Mild, fibrinogen, age, Admission, Critical, moderate, patients, predict, Glucose, COVID-19 patients, Creatine kinase-MB, blood glucose, Bilirubin, COVID-19 patient, Mild-to-moderate, respiratory rate, Factor, median time, systemic inflammatory response, multiple organ failures, objective, multivariable, Result, enrolled, identify, died, the disease, elevated, interquartile, progressed, 【제목키워드】 Glucose, COVID-19 progression,