Accurate risk stratification in COVID-19 patients consists a major clinical need to guide therapeutic strategies. We sought to evaluate the prognostic role of estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), a marker of arterial stiffness which reflects overall arterial integrity and aging, in risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. This retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, analyzed a total population of 1671 subjects consisting of 737 hospitalized COVID-19 patients consecutively recruited from two tertiary centers (Newcastle cohort: n = 471 and Pisa cohort: n = 266) and a non-COVID control cohort (n = 934). Arterial stiffness was calculated using validated formulae for ePWV. ePWV progressively increased across the control group, COVID-19 survivors and deceased patients (adjusted mean increase per group 1.89 m/s, P < 0.001). Using a machine learning approach, ePWV provided incremental prognostic value and improved reclassification for mortality over the core model including age, sex and comorbidities [AUC (core model + ePWV vs. core model) = 0.864 vs. 0.755]. ePWV provided similar prognostic value when pulse pressure or hs-Troponin were added to the core model or over its components including age and mean blood pressure ( p < 0.05 for all). The optimal prognostic ePWV value was 13.0 m/s. ePWV conferred additive discrimination (AUC: 0.817 versus 0.779, P < 0.001) and reclassification value (NRI = 0.381, P < 0.001) over the 4C Mortality score, a validated score for predicting mortality in COVID-19 and the Charlson comorbidity index. We suggest that calculation of ePWV, a readily applicable estimation of arterial stiffness, may serve as an additional clinical tool to refine risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 beyond established risk factors and scores.
【저자키워드】 viral infection, Prognostic markers, Predictive markers, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, Mortality, Comorbidity, Sex, risk factor, risk stratification, Cohort, Arterial stiffness, Patient, Therapeutic strategies, age, prognostic, hospitalized COVID-19 patient, marker, retrospective, blood pressure, Deceased, COVID-19 patient, Prognostic value, control group, subject, longitudinal cohort study, total population, component, pulse, survivor, 4C Mortality, arterial, approach, analyzed, evaluate, recruited, provided, calculated, adjusted, added, hospitalized patient, reflect, with COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 risk stratification, all-cause mortality, pulse, IMPROVE, Estimated, patients with COVID-19,