Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000–650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017–2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives. Here, the authors implement a mathematical model that describes how Baloxavir antiviral-induced inhibition of influenza virus replication in infected individuals affects the spread of the virus during epidemics, suggesting that both the scaling up and acceleration of treatment would avert substantial influenza morbidity and mortality every year.
【저자키워드】 Health care, Diseases, 【초록키워드】 Treatment, oseltamivir, SARS-CoV2, clinical trial, Antiviral, Influenza, Infection, Epidemics, Transmission, Influenza virus, virus, Replication, Spread, Epidemic, Viral load, Impact, death, virus replication, morbidity and mortality, incidence, baloxavir, symptom onset, Older, infected individual, progeny, block, Affect, Prevent, inhibit, approved, reducing, reduce, mathematical, infected case, kill, curtail, mRNA synthesis, 【제목키워드】 Influenza, Epidemics, modeling,