The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown. Releasing COVID-19 lockdown measures risks increases in transmission. Here, the authors estimate the increase in transmission rate for different regions in Italy and estimate that isolation of 5.5% exposed and highly infectious individuals would be needed to compensate for a 40% increase in transmission.
【저자키워드】 viral infection, Epidemiology, Computational models, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, lockdown, risk, Transmission, Italy, activity, Spread, Region, infections, outbreak, Isolation, trajectory, epidemiological data, methodology, disease, disease transmission, Analysis, containment measures, individual, measure, effort, transmission rate, deviation, Prevent, effective, the epidemic, initial, occurred, required, increase in, maintain, expected, increases in, baseline, explicit, Releasing, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, Italy, Spread, measure, implication,