Background The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a world-wide health crisis. Limited information is available regarding which patients will experience more severe disease symptoms. We evaluated hospitalized patients who were initially diagnosed with moderate COVID-19 for clinical parameters and radiological feature that showed an association with progression to severe/critical symptoms. Methods This study, a retrospective single-center study at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, enrolled 243 patients with confirmed COVID19 pneumonia. Forty of these patients progressed from moderate to severe/critical symptoms during follow up. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between moderate- and severe/critical-type symptoms. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify the risk factors associated with symptom progression. Results Patients with severe/critical symptoms were older ( p < 0.001) and more often male ( p = 0.046). A combination of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and high maximum chest computed tomography (CT) score was associated with disease progression. Maximum CT score (> 11) had the greatest predictive value for disease progression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.861 ( 95% confidence interval: 0.811–0.902). Conclusions Maximum CT score and COPD were associated with patient deterioration. Maximum CT score (> 11) was associated with severe illness. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-020-05683-3.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, COPD, CT score, Chest CT, ROC, Multivariate regression, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, Coronavirus disease 2019, pandemic, Risk factors, Pneumonia, Symptom, progression, hospitalized patients, risk factor, Symptoms, Health crisis, Moderate COVID-19, Predictive value, COPD, Laboratory, Computed tomography, Chest computed tomography, Disease progression, Deterioration, Health, Wuhan, male, Patient, electronic medical records, demographic, information, characteristic, moderate, pulmonary disease, association, Clinical parameters, retrospective, Combination, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, severe disease, obstructive pulmonary disease, Predictive, receiver operating characteristic, medical records, Older, supplementary material, 95% confidence interval, multivariable logistic regression, receiver operating characteristic curve, maximum, single-center study, clinical parameter, electronic medical record, radiological, Result, enrolled, identify, diagnosed, evaluated, were used, hospitalized patient, chronic obstructive, Limited, progressed, 【제목키워드】 progression, Retrospective study, Patient, maximum, Wuhan, China,