Acellular pertussis vaccines—a question of efficacy

Whole cell pertussis vaccine is considered to offer at least 80% protection against typical whooping cough. The quest for an equally effective but less reactogenic vaccine is now drawing to a close. During the forthcoming year a number of efficacy trials of acellular pertussis vaccines will be terminated. A variety of vaccines containing one, two, three or five purified pertussis antigens are being tested in Germany, Italy, Senegal and Sweden. About 30,000 infants have been enrolled in placebo-controlled studies and more than 100,000 in whole cell vaccine-controlled trials. The final plans for analysis of a Swedish placebo-controlled trial of whole cell and acellular vaccines is presented. Due to the unexpected high incidence of pertussis in Sweden during 1993-1994, relative risk comparisons between vaccines will be attempted in that trial, in addition to estimating absolute efficacy. A crucial issue is to what extent data may be compared between trials, given differences in design, vaccination schedules, and chosen endpoints. A primary case definition of laboratory-confirmed pertussis with at least 21 days of paroxysmal cough have been adopted in most trials. Pre-planned meta-analysis using this single endpoint will facilitate comparisons between vaccines. Serological correlates to protection in individuals will be sought in the ongoing placebo-controlled trials. The concept of a serological correlate valid for a vaccinated population but not necessarily for the vaccinated individual, as is the case with Hib vaccines, may turn out to be the only alternative to performing large efficacy trials in the future.