Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao PDR

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum ( P. falciparum ) than for Plasmodium vivax ( P. vivax ). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS. eLife digest Biting mosquitos spread the malaria parasite to humans. Along the Mekong River in Southeast Asia, spending time in the surrounding forest increases a person’s risk of malaria. This has led to a debate about whether deforestation in this area, which is called the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), will increase or decrease malaria transmission. The answer to the debate is not clear because some malaria-transmitting mosquitos thrive in heavily forested areas, in particular in the GMS, while others prefer less forested areas. Scientists studying malaria in the Amazon in South America suspect that malaria transmission increases shortly after deforestation but decreases six to eight years later. Some studies have tested this ‘frontier malaria’ theory but the results have been conflicting. Fewer studies have tested this theory in Southeast Asia. But deforestation has been blamed for recent malaria outbreaks in the GMS. Using data on malaria testing and forest cover in the GMS, Rerolle et al. show that deforestation around villages increases malaria transmission in the first two years and decreases malaria rates later. This trend was driven mostly by a type of malaria called Plasmodium falciparum and was less strong for Plasmodium vivax . The location of deforested areas also mattered. Deforestation within one to 10 kilometer of villages did not affect malaria rates. Deforestation further away in about a 30 kilometer radius did affect malaria transmission. Rerolle et al. suggest this may be because villagers have to spend longer times trekking through forests to hunt or harvest wood when the wider area is deforested. Currently, National Malaria Control Programs in the GMS focus their efforts on reducing forest-related transmission. This study strengthens the evidence supporting this approach. The results also suggest that different malaria elimination strategies may be necessary for different types of malaria parasite. Using this new information could help malaria control programs better target resources or educate villagers on how to protect themselves. The innovative methods used by Rerolle et al. reveal a more complex role of deforestation in malaria transmission and may inspire other scientists to think more carefully about environmental drivers of malaria.