Abstract
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many statistical and epidemiological studies have been published, trying to predict the future development of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, it would be beneficial to have a specific, mechanistic biophysical model, based on the driving forces of processes performed during virus-host interactions and fundamental laws of nature, allowing prediction of future evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses. In this paper, an attempt was made to predict the development of the pandemic, based on biothermodynamic parameters: Gibbs energy of binding and Gibbs energy of growth. Based on analysis of biothermodynamic parameters of various variants of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that appeared during evolution, an attempt was made to predict the future directions of evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and potential occurrence of new strains that could lead to new pandemic waves. Possible new mutations that could appear in the future could lead to changes in chemical composition, biothermodynamic properties (driving forces of new virus strains) and biological properties of SARS CoV-2 that represent a risk for humanity.
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, Gibbs energy of binding, Gibbs energy of growth, Mechanistic model, 【초록키워드】 SARS CoV-2, viruses, Evolution, pandemic, Mutation, COVID-19 pandemic, risk, Evolution of SARS-CoV-2, Virus-host interaction, Strains, predict, binding, Analysis, growth, new strain, new virus, Epidemiological study, driving, parameter, variants of SARS-CoV-2, statistical, Occurrence, performed, changes in, biological property, the SARS-CoV-2, 【제목키워드】 Evolution of SARS-CoV-2,