The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread world-wide since December 2019, killing more than 2.9 million of people. We have adapted a statistical model from the SIR epidemiological models to predict the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in France. Our model is based on several parameters and assumed a 4.2% seroprevalence in Occitania after the first lockdown. The recent use of serological tests to measure the effective seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the population of Occitania has led to a seroprevalence around 2.4%. This implies to review the parameters of our model to conclude at a lower than expected virus transmission rate, which may be due to infectivity varying with the patient’s symptoms or to a constraint due to an uneven population geographical distribution.
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, Epidemiology, Statistical methods, 【초록키워드】 serological test, lockdown, Seroprevalence, SARS-CoV-2 virus, virus transmission, Symptom, Spread, Serological tests, France, statistical model, epidemiological, predict, geographical distribution, parameter, killing, effective, expected, assumed, 【제목키워드】 virus, consequence,