Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID-19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~ 17 to ~ 48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans.
【저자키워드】 public health, viral infection, Epidemiology, Population screening, Computational models, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 pandemic, viral spread, organization, Spread, Viral, False negative rate, Viral load, distribution, False negative, Frequency, operation, lead, fraction, college, reproduction, effective, tested, develop, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, Spread, Temporal,