Abstract
Introduction
Our goal was to evaluate if traffic-light driven personalized care for COVID-19 was associated with improved survival in acute hospital settings.
Methods
Discharge outcomes were evaluated before and after prospective implementation of a real-time dashboard with feedback to ward-based clinicians. Thromboembolism categories were “medium-risk” (D-dimer >1000 ng/mL or CRP >200 mg/L); “high-risk” (D-dimer >3000 ng/mL or CRP >250 mg/L) or “suspected” (D-dimer >5000 ng/mL). Cytokine storm risk was categorized by ferritin.
Results
939/1039 COVID-19 positive patients (median age 67 years, 563/939 (60%) male) completed hospital encounters to death or discharge by 21st May 2020. Thromboembolism flag criteria were reached by 568/939 (60.5%), including 238/275 (86.6%) of the patients who died, and 330/664 (49.7%) of the patients who survived to discharge, p < 0.0001. Cytokine storm flag criteria were reached by 212 (22.6%) of admissions, including 80/275 (29.1%) of the patients who died, and 132/664 (19.9%) of the patients who survived, p < 0.0001. The maximum thromboembolism flag discriminated completed encounter mortality (no flag: 37/371 [9.97%] died; medium-risk: 68/239 [28.5%]; high-risk: 105/205 [51.2%]; and suspected thromboembolism: 65/124 [52.4%], p < 0.0001). Flag criteria were reached by 535 consecutive COVID-19 positive patients whose hospital encounter completed before traffic-light introduction: 173/535 (32.3% [95% confidence intervals 28.0, 36.0]) died. For the 200 consecutive admissions after implementation of real-time traffic light flags, 46/200 (23.0% [95% confidence intervals 17.1, 28.9]) died, p = 0.013. Adjusted for age and sex, the probability of death was 0.33 (95% confidence intervals 0.30, 0.37) before traffic light implementation, 0.22 (0.17, 0.27) after implementation, p < 0.001. In subgroup analyses, older patients, males, and patients with hypertension (p ≤ 0.01), and/or diabetes (p = 0.05) derived the greatest benefit from admission under the traffic light system.
Conclusion
Personalized early interventions were associated with a 33% reduction in early mortality. We suggest benefit predominantly resulted from early triggers to review/enhance anticoagulation management, without exposing lower-risk patients to potential risks of full anticoagulation therapy.
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV2, Mortality, anticoagulation, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, ferritin, discharge, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, therapy, hospital, risk, CRP, Intervention, outcome, hypertension, Probability, survival, management, implementation, male, Patient, Thromboembolism, death, Admission, Care, older patients, Trigger, criteria, Admissions, confidence interval, Clinicians, median age, potential risk, FLAG, benefit, males, Result, evaluate, died, the patient, evaluated, reached, category, reduction in, analyses, survived, age and sex, diabete, COVID-19 positive patient, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, hospital, risk, survival, Admission, real time, System, increase,