Abstract
Background
The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) culminated in a pandemic with many countries affected in varying stages. We aimed to develop a simulation environment for COVID-19 spread, taking environmental and social factors into account.
Methods
The program was written in R language. A stochastic point process simulation model for simulating epidemics, a maximum-likelihood estimation model, an exponential growth rate model for calculating the basic reproduction number (R0), and functions for generating graphical representations of the simulations were utilized.
Geographical area definition, population size, the number of initial infected individuals, period of simulation, parameters accounting for the radius of spread like masks usage, mobility level, intrinsic viral virulence, average infectious period, fraction of population vaccinated, time of vaccination, the efficacy of the vaccine, presence or absence of quarantine centers, time of establishment of quarantine centers, the efficacy of case detection and average time to quarantine from the detection of the infection were considered.
Results
When the defined parameters were input, the model performed successfully producing the epidemic curve, R0 and an animation of infection spread. It was found that when parameters of known epidemics such as COVID-19 in California, Texas and, Florida were input, the epidemic curve generated was comparable to the epidemic curve in reality.
Conclusion
This model can be utilized by many countries to visualize the effects of various mitigation strategies applied in their stage of disease and for policy makers to make informed decisions. It is applicable to many infectious diseases and hence can be used for research and educational purposes.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus, disease modeling, COVID-19 simulation, 【초록키워드】 Efficacy, vaccination, pandemic, quarantine, Infection, Epidemics, Infectious disease, novel coronavirus disease, Mask, Spread, Research, basic reproduction number, disease, function, Viral virulence, geographical area, Factor, stages, growth, infected individuals, average, R language, fraction, parameter, Effect, country, the epidemic, initial, maximum-likelihood, intrinsic, Result, defined, performed, affected, develop, applied, can be used, absence, comparable, producing, the vaccine, 【제목키워드】 Spread, COVID-19 infection,