Campaigns with oral polio vaccine may lower mortality and create unexpected results

Three studies from Guinea-Bissau found conflicting effects of OPV-at-birth (OPV0) on child survival. One study from 2004 suggested excess male mortality among children receiving OPV0 compared with children receiving NoOPV0 during a period of shortage of OPV. However, two subsequent studies showed beneficial effects of OPV0. In 2004, two national OPV-campaigns had been conducted in Guinea-Bissau. In a reanalysis of the 2004-study, in a survival analysis the age-adjusted mortality rate of study participants was 67% (95% CI=42-81%) lower after the OPV-campaigns than before the campaigns. In the OPV0 group only 22% (655/3031 person-years (pyrs)) of follow-up time was “after” the OPV-campaigns whereas 55% (473/859 pyrs) of the time in the NoOPV0 group was post-campaign (p<0.0001, Chi^{2}). Censoring for OPV-campaigns in the original study removed excess male mortality and made the three studies more homogeneous. Overall, there is now considerable evidence that OPV, like other live vaccines, has important beneficial non-specific effects.