Abstract
Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.
【초록키워드】 COVID-19, coronavirus, antibody, risk, MERS, virus, Asia, Health, Surveillance, distribution, disease, Contact, human populations, SARSr-CoV, overlap, help, bat-CoV, SARS-related coronavirus, SARSr-CoVs, infect, Host, caused, median, can be used, zoonotic spillover, 【제목키워드】 risk, Asia, SARS-related coronavirus,