Objective Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors. Results Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta’s government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, vaccination, Contact tracing, basic reproduction number, rapid testing, 【초록키워드】 Coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19 vaccine, social distancing, Asymptomatic, Factors, sensitivity analysis, predict, mechanism, Endemic, Contact, Vaccination strategy, Government, Factor, Jakarta, vaccination rate, objective, spread of COVID-19, Result, include, can be used, reducing, mathematical, 【제목키워드】 Impact, Indonesia, Vaccination strategy, Jakarta,