[Will climate and demography have a major impact on malaria in sub-Saharan Africa in the next 20 years?]

The purpose of this review of the literature is to present factors possibly affecting the spread of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa over the next 20 years. Malaria is a vector-borne disease that depends on environmental and human constraints. The main environmental limitations involve susceptibility of the vector (mosquitoes of the Anopheles genus) and parasite (Plasmodium falciparum) to climate. Malaria is a stable, endemic disease over most of the African continent. Climatic change can only affect a few regions on the fringes of stable zones (e.g. altitude areas or Sahel) where malaria is an unstable, epidemic disease. Higher temperatures could induce a decrease of malaria transmission in regions of the Sahel or an increase in the highlands. The extent of these overall trends will depend on the unpredictable occurrence of major meteorological phenomenon as well as on human activities affecting the environment that could lead to dramatic but limited outbreaks in some locations. The most influential human factors could be runaway demographic growth and urban development. Estimations based on modeling studies indicate that urbanization will lead to a 53.5% drop in exposure to malaria by 2030. However this reduction could be less than expected because of adaptation of Anopheles gambiae and An. arabiensis, the main vectors of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, to the urban environment as well as increasing vector resistance to insecticides. Another unforeseeable factor that could induce unexpected malaria epidemics is mass migration due to war or famine. Finally immunosuppressive illnesses (e.g. HIV and malnutrition) could alter individual susceptibility to malaria. Social constraints also include human activities that modify land use. In this regard land use (e.g. forest clearance and irrigation) is known to influence the burden of malaria that is itself dependent on local determinants of transmission. Overall the most important social constraint for the population will be access to malarial prevention and implementation action to control this scourge.