Does armed conflict lead to lower prevalence of maternal health-seeking behaviours: theoretical and empirical research based on 55 683 women in armed conflict settings

[[[ Background: ]]] Women and children bear a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality due to armed conflict. Life-saving maternal and child health (MCH) services are low-quality in most conflict-affected regions. Previous studies on armed conflict and MCH services have been mostly cross-sectional, and a causal relationship between armed conflict and MCH services utilisation cannot be inferred. [[[ Methods: ]]] First, we constructed a utility equation for maternal health-seeking behaviour. Next, we extracted MCH data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey led by the UNICEF. Armed conflict data were obtained from the Uppsala Conflict Data Programme; 55 683 women aged 15-49 from Chad, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Republic of Iraq were selected as participants. We fitted a difference-in-differences (DID) model, taking before or after the conflict started as an exposure variable to estimate the effects of armed conflict on maternal health-seeking behaviours. [[[ Results: ]]] According to the results of the DID model, in the regional sample, armed conflict had a positive effect on tetanus vaccination (β=0.055, 95% CI 0.004 to 0.106, p<0.05), and had a negative effect on antenatal care at least eight visits (ANC8+) (β=-0.046, 95% CI -0.078 to -0.015, p<0.01). And, the effects of armed conflict on ANC, ANC4+, institutional delivery and early initiation of breast feeding (EIB) were not statistically significant. As for the country sample, we found that armed conflict had a negative effect on EIB (β=-0.085, 95% CI -0.184 to 0.015, p<0.1) in Chad. In Iraq, armed conflict had positive impacts on ANC (β=0.038, 95% CI -0.001 to 0.078, p<0.1) and tetanus vaccination (β=0.059, 95% CI 0.012 to 0.107, p<0.05), whereas it had a negative effect on ANC8+ (β=-0.039, 95% CI -0.080 to 0.002, p<0.1). No statistically significant associations were discovered in DRC based on the DID model. [[[ Conclusions: ]]] There might be a mixed effect of armed conflict on maternal health-seeking behaviours. In the absence of humanitarian assistance, armed conflict reduces certain maternal health-seeking behaviours, such as ANC8+. When practical humanitarian health assistance is provided, the damage can be alleviated, and even the prevalence of maternal health-seeking behaviours can be improved, such as tetanus vaccination. Providing humanitarian assistance to conflict-affected regions improved the accessibility of MCH services for women living in those areas. However, the goals of saving lives and alleviating suffering still need to be achieved. In conflict-affected regions, humanitarian assistance on ANC, institutional delivery and breast feeding need strengthening.