Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a global pandemic, resulting in considerable mortality. The risk factors, clinical treatments, especially comprehensive risk models for COVID-19 death are urgently warranted. Methods In this retrospective study, 281 non-survivors and 712 survivors with propensity score matching by age, sex, and comorbidities were enrolled from January 13, 2020 to March 31, 2020. Results Higher SOFA, qSOFA, APACHE II and SIRS scores, hypoxia, elevated inflammatory cytokines, multi-organ dysfunction, decreased immune cell subsets, and complications were significantly associated with the higher COVID-19 death risk. In addition to traditional predictors for death risk, including APACHE II (AUC = 0.83), SIRS (AUC = 0.75), SOFA (AUC = 0.70) and qSOFA scores (AUC = 0.61), another four prediction models that included immune cells subsets (AUC = 0.90), multiple organ damage biomarkers (AUC = 0.89), complications (AUC = 0.88) and inflammatory-related indexes (AUC = 0.75) were established. Additionally, the predictive accuracy of combining these risk factors (AUC = 0.950) was also significantly higher than that of each risk group alone, which was significant for early clinical management for COVID-19. Conclusions The potential risk factors could help to predict the clinical prognosis of COVID-19 patients at an early stage. The combined model might be more suitable for the death risk evaluation of COVID-19. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06585-8.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, Death risk, Risk prediction models, Immune cells subsets, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, Biomarker, Risk factors, Mortality, hypoxia, multi-organ dysfunction, Comorbidity, Sex, risk, risk factor, global pandemic, Retrospective study, Accuracy, death, Complication, Clinical management, age, SOFA, Inflammatory cytokines, predictor, early stage, predict, propensity score matching, Immune cell, SIRS, Multiple organ damage, COVID-19 patient, APACHE II, Predictive, qSOFA, Clinical prognosis, Factor, supplementary material, potential risk, help, survivor, non-survivor, Result, enrolled, resulting, caused, significantly, addition, elevated, significantly higher, subset, 【제목키워드】 risk factor, Characteristics, clinical, Patient, retrospective cohort study, Wuhan, China,