Background The mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention. Methods A cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model. Results Lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925–0.989) and 0.437( P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation. Conclusions The novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-020-05561-y.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, ARDS, risk score, 【초록키워드】 coronavirus disease, risk, D-dimer, procalcitonin, Intervention, risk factor, sensitivity, specificity, Cohort, mortality rate, characteristic, Admission, acute respiratory distress, high risk, Blood urea nitrogen, supplementary material, 95% confidence interval, logistic regression model, syndrome, participant, test dataset, total score, cutoff value, training dataset, high-risk patient, Randomly, Result, selected, identify, required, were used, hospitalized patient, assigned, consecutive patient, ferritin level, Hosmer–Lemeshow test, patients with COVID-19, with COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 coronavirus disease, risk, novel, acute respiratory distress, scoring system, syndrome, Wuhan, China, hospitalized patient,