Background Several specific risk scores for Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) involving clinical and biochemical parameters have been developed from higher-risk patients, in addition to validating well-established pneumonia risk scores. We compared multiple risk scores in predicting more severe disease in a cohort of young patients with few comorbid illnesses. Accurately predicting the progression of COVID-19 may guide triage and therapy. Methods We retrospectively examined 554 hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Singapore. The CURB-65 score, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), ISARIC 4C prognostic score (4C), CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, COVID-GRAM Critical Illness risk score (COVID-GRAM), Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 index for COVID-19 Mortality (VACO), and the “rule-of-6” score were compared for three performance characteristics: the need for supplemental oxygen, intensive care admission and mechanical ventilation. Results A majority of patients were young (≤ 40 years, n = 372, 67.1%). 57 (10.3%) developed pneumonia, with 16 (2.9% of study population) requiring supplemental oxygen. 19 patients (3.4%) required intensive care and 2 patients (0.5%) died. The clinical risk scores predicted patients who required supplemental oxygenation and intensive care well. Adding the presence of fever to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score and 4C score improved the ability to predict patients who required supplemental oxygen (c-statistic 0.81, 95% CI 0.68–0.94; and 0.84, 95% CI 0.75–0.94 respectively). Conclusion Simple scores including well established pneumonia risk scores can help predict progression of COVID-19. Adding the presence of fever as a parameter to the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc or the 4C score improved the performance of these scores in a young population with few comorbidities. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06768-3.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, outcomes, Fever, Singapore, risk score, 【초록키워드】 Coronavirus disease 2019, therapy, intensive care, mechanical ventilation, Pneumonia, Comorbidities, risk, progression, Cohort, Patient, prognostic, Admission, patients, predict, CURB-65 score, severe disease, Oxygenation, supplemental oxygen, Risk scores, COVID-GRAM, index, supplementary material, 95% CI, study population, help, illnesses, clinical risk, parameter, simple, illness, veteran, Result, predicted, examined, died, addition, required, majority, Adding, PSI, biochemical parameter, hospitalised COVID-19 patient, ISARIC 4C, requiring supplemental oxygen, 【제목키워드】 clinical risk, COVID-19 cohort,