COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Intervention, Epidemic, Reproduction number, Case fatality rate, compartmental model, Hungary, under-ascertainment, 【초록키워드】 Transmission, virus, heterogeneity, Measures, COVID-19 outbreak, Factors, epidemiological, disease, COVID-19 epidemic, Contact, statistical analysis, growth, early phase, measure, Effects, effective, reducing, suppressed, reduction in, incidence of COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 phase, scenario,