Introduction the level five (L5) lockdown was a very stringent social distancing measure taken to reduce the spread of COVID-19 infections. This study assessed the impact of the L5 lockdown and its association with the incidence of COVID-19 cases in South Africa (SA). Methods data was obtained from the National Department of Health (NDoH) from the 5 th March to the 30 th April 2020. A basic reproductive number (R0) and a serial interval were used to calculate estimated cases (EC). A double exponential smoothing model was used to forecast the number of cases during the L5 lockdown period. A Poisson regression model was fitted to describe the association between L5 lockdown status and incident cases. Results a total of 5,737 laboratory-confirmed cases (LCC) were reported by 30 th April 2020, 4,785 (83%) occurred during L5 lockdown. Our model forecasted 30,629 cases of COVID-19 assuming L5 lockdown was not imposed. High incidence rates of COVID-19 were recorded in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga Provinces during the L5 lockdown compared to the other provinces. Nationally, the incident rate of COVID-19 was 68.00% higher in L5 lockdown than pre-lockdown for LCC. Conclusion the L5 lockdown was very effective in reducing the incidence of COVID-19 cases. However, the incident rates of LCC and EC were higher nationally, and in some provinces during the L5 lockdown.
【저자키워드】 basic reproductive number, laboratory confirmed cases, estimated cases, forecast cases, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, lockdown, social distancing, South Africa, infections, incidence rate, association, Department, Poisson regression model, laboratory-confirmed, FIVE, effective, spread of COVID-19, Result, was used, occurred, reported, were used, reducing, reduce, was obtained, were recorded, calculate, incidence of COVID-19, 【제목키워드】 lockdown, South Africa, Impact, incidence, FIVE,