Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 – 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 – 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 – 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
【저자키워드】 Seroprevalence, seasonal coronavirus, waning immunity, Catalytic model, 【초록키워드】 viruses, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus, Immunity, antibody, children, Infection, Reinfection, Seroconversion, persistence, epidemiological, estimate, Endemic, acute respiratory syndrome, Older, circulating, offer, seasonal, FIVE, force of infection, human coronavirus, majority, catalytic, 【제목키워드】 seasonal coronavirus,