As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.
【저자키워드】 Epidemiology, Scientific data, 【초록키워드】 pandemic, antibody, SARS-COV-2 infection, susceptibility, Test, Epidemic, Region, Public health interventions, infection rate, resource, disease, Critical, epidemic wave, growth, measure, Intervention effects, regions, consequence, independent, affected, determine, reductions in, contributed, Forward, the SARS-CoV-2, 【제목키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, susceptibility, Epidemic, Region, Impact, reduction,