We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate, and contribute to the efficacy of age-specific contact and treatment measures. We consider the effect of relaxing restrictions across less vulnerable age-brackets, comparing results across selected groups of varying population parameters. Moreover, we analyze the mitigating effects of vaccinations and examine the effectiveness of age-targeted distributions. Lastly, we explore how our model can applied to other states to reflect social-distancing policy based on different parameters and metrics.
【저자키워드】 Epidemiology, Applied mathematics, Experimental models of disease, 【초록키워드】 Treatment, Efficacy, vaccination, Measures, Effectiveness, mortality rate, USA, disease spread, group, parameters, Contact, Washington, Metrics, significant effect, measure, social contact, parameter, distributions, Effect, selected, applied, less, contribute, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, virus,