We propose a novel model based on a set of coupled delay differential equations with fourteen delays in order to accurately estimate the incubation period of COVID-19, employing publicly available data of confirmed corona cases. In this goal, we separate the total cases into fourteen groups for the corresponding fourteen incubation periods. The estimated mean incubation period we obtain is 6.74 days (95% Confidence Interval(CI): 6.35 to 7.13), and the 90th percentile is 11.64 days (95% CI: 11.22 to 12.17), corresponding to a good agreement with statistical supported studies. This model provides an almost zero-cost computational complexity to estimate the incubation period.
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【저자키워드】 Medical research, Health care, Diseases, Mathematics and computing, Health occupations, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, Incubation period, group, confidence, available data, mean incubation period, statistical, supported, provide, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, Incubation period,
【저자키워드】 Medical research, Health care, Diseases, Mathematics and computing, Health occupations, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, Incubation period, group, confidence, available data, mean incubation period, statistical, supported, provide, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, Incubation period,