China’s carbon peak greatly impacts global climate targets. Limited studies have comprehensively analyzed the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, changing emission network, and recent carbon intensity (CI) reduction on the carbon peak and the corresponding mitigation implications. Using a unique dataset at different levels, we project China’s CO 2 emission by 2035 and analyze the time, volume, driver patterns, complex emission network, and policy implications of China’s carbon peak in the post- pandemic era. We develop an ensemble time-series model with machine learning approaches as the projection benchmark, and show that China’s carbon peak will be achieved by 2021–2026 with > 80% probability. Most Chinese cities and counties have not achieved carbon peaks response to the priority-peak policy and the current implementation of CI reduction should thus be strengthened. While there is a “trade off” between the application of carbon emission reduction technology and economic recovery in the post-pandemic era, a close cooperation of interprovincial CO 2 emission is also warranted.
【저자키워드】 Climate sciences, Environmental social sciences, Energy science and technology, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19 pandemic, Probability, Impact, implementation, pandemic era, dataset, targets, reduction, Volume, intensity, Implications, complex, Chinese, while, MOST, implication, analyzed, develop, unique, Limited, machine learning approach, 【제목키워드】 China, carbon, implication,