Significance This paper examines whether the opening of K–12 schools may lead to the spread of COVID-19. Analyzing how an increase of COVID-19 cases is related to the timing of opening K–12 schools in the United States, we find that counties that opened K–12 schools with in-person learning experienced an increase in the growth rate of cases by 5 percentage points on average, controlling for a variety of policies, past infection rates, and other factors. This association of K–12 school visits with case growth is stronger when mask wearing is not mandated for staff at school. These findings support policies that promote masking and other precautionary measures at schools and giving vaccine priority to education workers. This paper empirically examines how the opening of K–12 schools is associated with the spread of COVID-19 using county-level panel data in the United States. As preliminary evidence, our event-study analysis indicates that cases and deaths in counties with in-person or hybrid opening relative to those with remote opening substantially increased after the school opening date, especially for counties without any mask mandate for staff. Our main analysis uses a dynamic panel data model for case and death growth rates, where we control for dynamically evolving mitigation policies, past infection levels, and additive county-level and state-week “fixed” effects. This analysis shows that an increase in visits to both K–12 schools and colleges is associated with a subsequent increase in case and death growth rates. The estimates indicate that fully opening K–12 schools with in-person learning is associated with a 5 (SE = 2) percentage points increase in the growth rate of cases. We also find that the association of K–12 school visits or in-person school openings with case growth is stronger for counties that do not require staff to wear masks at schools. These findings support policies that promote masking and other precautionary measures at schools and giving vaccine priority to education workers.
【저자키워드】 hybrid, in-person, K–12 school openings, and remote, mask-wearing requirements for staff, foot traffic data, debiased estimator, 【초록키워드】 Vaccine, Mask, Schools, Factors, death, School, estimate, association, Evidence, Analysis, growth rates, Support, infection rates, growth, COVID-19 case, average, measure, infection levels, The United States, Effects, spread of COVID-19, main analysis, subsequent, indicate, variety, promote, increase in, K–12, Significance, the timing, 【제목키워드】 Data analysis, School, association, spread of COVID-19, K–12,