Significance The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide. It remains unknown whether summer weather will reduce its spread and justify relaxing political interventions and restarting economic activities. We develop statistical models that predict the maximum potential of COVID-19 worldwide and throughout the year. We find that UV light, in particular, is associated with decreased disease growth rate relative to other analyzed factors. Based on these associations with weather, we predict that COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. However, uncertainty remains high, and many factors besides climate, such as social interventions, will influence transmission. Thus, the world must remain vigilant, and continued interventions will likely be needed until a vaccine becomes available. The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives. It remains unknown, as of April 2020, whether summer weather will reduce its spread, thereby alleviating strains on hospitals and providing time for vaccine development. Early insights from laboratory studies and research on related viruses predicted that COVID-19 would decline with higher temperatures, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) light. Using current, fine-scaled weather data and global reports of infections, we develop a model that explains 36% of the variation in maximum COVID-19 growth rates based on weather and demography (17%) and country-specific effects (19%). UV light is most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth. Projections suggest that, without intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. Validation based on data from May and June 2020 confirms the generality of the climate signal detected. However, uncertainty remains high, and the probability of weekly doubling rates remains >20% throughout summer in the absence of social interventions. Consequently, aggressive interventions will likely be needed despite seasonal trends.
【저자키워드】 SARS-CoV-2, pandemic, Climate, Humidity, UV light, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, Vaccine, Vaccine development, hospital, Variation, Intervention, Transmission, virus, Laboratory, Spread, Probability, infections, validation, ultraviolet, Research, Factors, statistical model, disease, predict, association, strain, growth rate, Factor, growth, projection, activities, doubling, Effect, decrease, predicted, analyzed, develop, absence, reduce, related virus, explain, Significance, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19, seasonality, growth rate,