Significance By linking seasonality of climate and changing human behavior, we demonstrate that collaboration on global efforts for prompt and intensive intervention is fundamental to coping with future pandemic waves of COVID-19. We propose that this collaboration can be started in locations with typically high population density and international travel, followed by other high-risk locations. We believe this tiered intervention strategy can greatly integrate global efforts and is effective and practical to improve the global emergency response to COVID-19 and many other infectious diseases. Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
【저자키워드】 Climate, disease transmission, human behavior, international collaboration, hierarchical intervention network, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19, public health, pandemic, Diseases, Variation, Intervention, Local, Transmissibility, International, implementation, Travel, community transmission, Intensive, Critical, Evidence, reduction, emergency response, Perspective, high-risk areas, diffusion, effective, IMPROVE, functional, mathematical, acting, global effort, Significance, 【제목키워드】 COVID-19 pandemic, Intervention, joint,