Urinary peptides provide information about the risk of mortality across a spectrum of diseases and scenarios

Background There is evidence of pre-established vulnerability in individuals that increases the risk of their progression to severe disease or death, although the mechanisms causing this are still not fully understood. Previous research has demonstrated that a urinary peptide classifier (COV50) predicts disease progression and death from SARS-CoV-2 at an early stage, indicating that the outcome prediction may be partly due to vulnerabilities that are already present. The aim of this study is to examine the ability of COV50 to predict future non-COVID-19-related mortality, and evaluate whether the pre-established vulnerability can be generic and explained on a molecular level by urinary peptides. Methods Urinary proteomic data from 9193 patients (1719 patients sampled at intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 7474 patients with other diseases (non-ICU)) were extracted from the Human Urinary Proteome Database. The previously developed COV50 classifier, a urinary proteomics biomarker panel consisting of 50 peptides, was applied to all datasets. The association of COV50 scoring with mortality was evaluated. Results In the ICU group, an increase in the COV50 score of one unit resulted in a 20% higher relative risk of death [adjusted HR 1.2 (95% CI 1.17–1.24)]. The same increase in COV50 in non-ICU patients resulted in a higher relative risk of 61% [adjusted HR 1.61 (95% CI 1.47–1.76)], consistent with adjusted meta-analytic HR estimate of 1.55 [95% CI 1.39–1.73]. The most notable and significant changes associated with future fatal events were reductions of specific collagen fragments, most of collagen alpha I (I). Conclusion The COV50 classifier is predictive of death in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting that it detects pre-existing vulnerability. This prediction is mainly based on collagen fragments, possibly reflecting disturbances in the integrity of the extracellular matrix. These data may serve as a basis for proteomics-guided intervention aiming towards manipulating/ improving collagen turnover, thereby reducing the risk of death. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-023-04508-6.