We explore the impacts of economic and financial dislocations caused by COVID-19 pandemic shocks on food sales in the United States from January 2020 to January 2021. We use the US weekly economic index ( WEI ) to measure economic dislocations and the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index ( VIX ) to capture the broader stock market dislocations. We validate the NARDL model by testing a battery of models using the autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) methodology (ARDL, NARDL, and QARDL specifications). Our study postulates that an increase in WEI has a significant negative long-term effect on food sales, whereas a decrease in WEI has no statistically significant (long-run) effect. Thus, policy responses that ignore asymmetric effects and hidden cointegration may fail to promote food security during pandemics.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, C33, E32, ARDL model, Q54, Bewley transformation, CBOE’s volatility index, E00, Food sales, NARDL model, QARDL model, US weekly economic index,