Background: The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and drastically impacted the economy. The relationship between different control measures and economic losses becomes a research hotspot. Methods: In this study, the SEIR infectious disease model was revised and coupled with an economic model to quantify this nonlinear relationship in Wuhan. The control measures were parameterized into two factors: the effective number of daily contacts (people) ( r ); the average waiting time for quarantined patients (day) ( g ). Results: The parameter r has a threshold value that if r is less than 5 (people), the number of COVID-19 infected patients is very close to 0. A “central valley” around r = 5~6 can be observed, indicating an optimal control measure to reduce economic losses. A lower value of parameter g is beneficial to stop COVID-19 spread with a lower economic cost. Conclusion: The simulation results demonstrate that implementing strict control measures as early as possible can stop the spread of COVID-19 with a minimal economic impact. The quantitative assessment method in this study can be applied in other COVID-19 pandemic areas or countries.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, control measures, Economic losses, infectious diseases model, 【초록키워드】 COVID-19 pandemic, Infectious disease, public health crisis, Spread, outbreak, Wuhan, Research, COVID-19 epidemic, Contact, average, measure, threshold value, quantitative assessment, hotspot, parameter, SEIR, effective, spread of COVID-19, caused, less, reduce, impacted, COVID-19 infected patient, quarantined patient, 【제목키워드】 Control, scenario, measure, Multiple, Wuhan, China,