Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention. Methods To improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies. Results Using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission number, R 0 , of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines would greatly slow the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming that the isolation rate α in Wuhan was 0.30. If quarantine measures were taken from March 10, 2020, and the quarantine rate of α was also 0.3, then the final number of infected people was predicted to be 11,426 in South Korea and 147,142 in Italy. Conclusions Our mathematical models indicate that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic planning, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and some measures including city closures and leave policies should be implemented to ensure SARS-CoV-2 eradication.
【저자키워드】 COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Mathematical models, Hospital isolation, 【초록키워드】 Coronavirus disease 2019, Efficacy, Vaccine, coronavirus, Vaccines, quarantine, hospital, Transmission, Italy, virus, Spread, Accuracy, Wuhan, Isolation, South Korea, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, Government, acute respiratory syndrome, Chinese, measure, Final, SEIR, effective, IMPROVE, Result, predicted, caused, reduced, demonstrated, number of infected, mathematical, β value, 【제목키워드】 Italy, China, mathematical model, South Korea,